Oil prices are back at $100 a barrel, and understanding how they got there requires tracing a rapid sequence of events that began when the current conflict erupted on February 28. At that point, Brent crude stood at around $60. Within days, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent prices surging. By this week, oil had hit $119 before partially retreating, and Thursday saw it climb back to $100 — a level that underscores the depth and persistence of the supply crisis.
The key milestones include the initial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which cut off roughly a fifth of global seaborne oil and gas flows. This was followed by Saudi Aramco’s warning of catastrophic market consequences, a surge in Brent to $119, a brief retreat on conflicting statements from Washington, and then renewed pressure as Iranian forces struck Bahrain, Iraq, Oman, and merchant ships in the Gulf.
Thursday’s attacks hit the Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree near the Strait of Hormuz, with three crew members reported trapped. Iraq shut all oil ports, Bahrain placed residents under shelter-in-place orders, and Oman cleared its Mina Al Fahal terminal. The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude in a record coordinated action, and the US contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Iran’s military escalated rhetoric alongside military action, warning of $200-per-barrel oil. President Trump pledged to continue the campaign. Energy Secretary Chris Wright accused Iran of deliberately threatening allied energy security. The conflict shows no sign of resolution, and markets continue to price in a prolonged disruption.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel. Deutsche Bank warned of stagflation risks. Oil is expected to remain elevated as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.